Chances Jump for Tropical Storm Nadine to Form This Weekend

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a system in the northwestern Caribbean that could become Tropical Storm Nadine by this weekend.
Several systems of interest have been monitored by the NHC this week, although the system in the Atlantic known as AL94, which previously showed chances of becoming Tropical Storm Nadine, is now less likely to strengthen into a named storm. However, a system in the northwestern Caribbean, known as AL95, is showing increasing chances that it could become the next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season by this weekend.
As of Friday morning, AL95 had a 50 percent chance of formation in the next 48 hours. It also showed a 50 percent chance of formation in the next seven days. On Thursday afternoon, the system had a low chance of formation for the same periods.
“Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue across the northwestern Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area of low pressure that is gradually becoming better defined to the north of eastern Honduras,” the most recent NHC update said.
It continued: “Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional development over the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday.”
The NHC added that regardless of development, the system is expected to produce “locally heavy rainfall” across portions of Central America and southern Mexico throughout the weekend.
Newsweek reached out by email to the NHC for comment.
AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva previously said there’s one of two paths the storm is likely to take, should it develop.
“One possibility would take the system westward into Central America and southern Mexico, and the other is, unfortunately, toward Florida,” DaSilva said.
However, conditions around Florida are not conducive to supporting a tropical storm or hurricane right now. Earlier this week, WFLA-TV chief meteorologist Jeff Berardelli told Newsweek that a cold front was moving through Florida this week that could act “as a wall to any tropical systems that try to move north,” at least temporarily.
Despite this, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is far from over. Several more named storms could develop before the season ends on November 30.
As for the other system in the Atlantic, chances of formation were as high as 60 percent earlier this week, but they have since fallen to 10 percent.
“A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending a couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands,” the NHC said.
It went on: “Development, if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at around 20 mph, continuing north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas this weekend. Further development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds by early next week.”